But it also needs to take into account credible events, even if they’re unpleasant / unfortunate. If it’s a beautiful well laid out plan that takes you from now until eternity, you’ve got to allow for variations on your assumptions of course. But also, one variation is the credible risk events you’re likely to encounter.
While often credible emergencies or risks are allowed for but it’s based on your past experience, and is out-of-date, the instant you’ve listed them. The basics are important – updating the plan, and staying in touch with current trends from what others have learnt. But just planning for your organisation to get punched in the mouth (figuratively of course) is one way to be prepared for a whole range of unknowns or even black swans.
It’s not a binary conversation about detailed planning and generalised themes. It’s just about doing what you can do, and acknowledging the weaknesses of what your plan is now, while doing your best to build in resilience through robust and varied planning.